Did Social-Distancing Measures in Kentucky Help to Flatten the COVID-19 Curve?

Charles Courtemanche
University of Kentucky

Joseph Garuccio

Ann Le

Joshua Pinkston

Aaron Yelowitz
University of Kentucky

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Abstract: In the absence of a vaccine or more effective treatment options, containing the spread of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) must rely on non-pharmaceutical interventions. All U.S. states adopted social-distancing measures in March and April of 2020, though they varied in both timing and scope. Kentucky began by closing public schools and restaurant dining rooms on March 16th before progressing to closing other non-essential businesses and eventually issuing a “Healthy at Home” order with restrictions similar to the shelter-in-place (SIPO) orders adopted by other states. We aim to quantify the impact of these measures on COVID-19 case growth in the state. An event-study model allows us to link adoption of social distancing measures across the Midwest and South to the growth rate of cases, allowing for effects to emerge gradually to account for the lag between infection and positive test result. We then use the results to predict how the number of cases would have evolved in Kentucky in the absence of these policy measures – in other words, if the state had relied on voluntary social distancing alone. We estimate that, by April 25, Kentucky would have had 44,482 confirmed COVID-19 cases without social distancing restrictions, as opposed to the 3,857 actually observed.

Published: April, 2020